What’s Your Number? On Hitting 400 May 2012

NASA CO2 figures over the century

MAY 9 2012
Steven A Leibo is a professor of International History & Politics at the Sage Colleges

WHAT’S YOUR NUMBER?

“I don’t want to be a number.”

It was a comment one heard quite often when I was young, an idea that we should not be reduced to anything so simple as a few digits, that we, the children of the sixties were the essence of individuality. that we would not simply conform to the world created by our parents, an earlier generation made famous for their conformity, indeed dramatized in that famous movie The Man In The Gray Flannel Suit.

But of course non of that really mattered, not for men at least because we were actually obsessed with numbers, one in particular our Vietnam draft number. Mine was 59. Yes, the single most important number in our existence it seemed at the time. Because that number had a direct link to whether we were ever going to be able to build or even reject that earlier 1950s model our parents had built.

But like our failure to avoid letting a number define us it turns that the nineteen fifties of our parents really did set us on numerical path that would define our existence. Because that was when scientist Charles David Keeling, who should be infinitely more famous than he is discovered from his perch in the mountains of Hawaii that despite seasonal variation it was indeed possible to measure the steady buildup of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Yes, a steady growth that mattered enormously because for more than a century scientists had already understood that our lives were absolutely dependent on greenhouses gases to protect us from the freezing temperatures of space.
Understood that it was only such gases that allowed us to retain enough of the sun’s heat to nurture life and that CO2 was one of the more long lasting of them, an extraordinary achievement on Keeling’s part complemented by the later discovery that glacial ice, laid out year after year with each new snowfall, carries with it bubbles of air that can as well be measured for their C02 levels.

And what have we learned, is that before the fossil fuel driven industrial revolution those heat trapping carbon molecules hovered at around 280 ppm in the atmosphere. but as the ancient Greek philosophers told us so long ago too much of a good thing can be very bad.

And the record since the carbon based fossil fuel driven industrial revolution began shows us a planet speeding toward a run-away heat surge, planetary disaster of more and more powerful storms, drought and crop failures.

A figure that was about 303 when my mom and dad showed up in 1919 and 25 respectively. A number that was around 311 when I was born something like a generation later., around 347 when my son was born but had jumped to 356 when my daughter arrived. A not surprising jump given that their arrival roughly paralleled the impact of India and China’s entrance into the fossil fuel driven globalized world economy.

All numbers screaming like a speedometer warning of impending disaster, a number that was about 387 when I started giving public talks on climate change and that was long before massive heat driven storms like Irene, Lee and Super storm Sandy devastated the American north east. And now, this very week it looks like we are posed to hit 400, a number we have not seen in more than 800,000 years.

Like so many more extra blankets over our planet if you will, of heat trapping gases, a number every single one of us needs to understand, checking as well to see what the number was when they arrived as we rush headlong into this new century burning our way through all the carbon molecules we can find from those buried in natural gas, to coal and oil.

Not forgetting to the dirtiest of them all, the Canadian Tar Sands we are perhaps about to inflict upon our children unless cooler heads prevail.

The Boston Bombings Other Victims April 2013

A More Dangerous Round with North Korea? April 2013

Audio for North Korea

Wamc April 11, 2013
Dr Steven A Leibo is the Sherman David Spector in the Humanities at the Sage Colleges

“Why North Korea scares me”

By all rights I should be the last person to be nervous about North Korea. Sure, I know they have a huge army, all sorts of weapons of mass destruction. Yes, literally an arsenal that would make either Iran or Saddam Hussein’s Iraq green with envy, host to concentration camps that would have made Hitler proud.

And I should know because I am one of the authors of The World Today Series, annuals reviews that get published each august about various regions of the world. indeed for almost twenty years I have been doing the
East & South East Asia volume.

Yes, following closely and then writing up revisions; flowing recent history into contemporary political, social, economic and environmental developments.

Covering closely the entire region from China to Indonesia– From Vietnam to Cambodia. Sometime I redo a great deal, sometimes not much depending on developments. In truth what I like best are countries with dictatorships that are not being challenged. Not good for the locals. Good for me.

And then there is North Korea. Frankly as we have heard so much in the media these days it’s a situation very much along the lines of that old French line

“Le plus ca change, le plus c’est la meme chose”

Indeed with North Korea, some years I just change the dates of the different crises, the different threats are so similar. So as I said, I should be the last person to be nervous about what is going on.

Should be

But as I said, I cover a huge range of changes, new elections, new governments and that’s what really got me nervous. Because geo-political imperatives aside people matter, Barack Obama is not George W Bush. Indeed George W. Was not his father.And people often do want to make good first impressions, whether or warm or tough depending on the situation. And right now what is going on in the Korean Peninsula scares the hell out of me. Because what we have here is a very old game of brinksmanship being played out by a bunch of new players. Indeed the young kid we keep hearing about in North Korea, Kim Jung-un is .. can you believe it — actually among the most senior government leaders in this new round of Korean chicken.

Yes, Kim Jung-un, who unlike his grandfather kim il sung 0r his dad Kim Jung Jung-il, Kim the grandkid has no memory of the horrors, the suffering, the 1950’s Korean war inflicted on the region’s people.

And he, can you believe it is more senior in office than Xi Jinping who just took over the reigns of leadership in China. While to Kim Jong un’s south, the New leader of South Korea even more recently took office, President Park Geun-hye the first female South Korean leader. And she is the daughter of Korean’s legendary anti- North Korean strong man of the 1960s is carrying with her all the burden of living up to the reputation of her father, who’s memory helped propel her into office, even as she attempts to establish herself in power in a society that is still deeply patriarchal. A woman no doubt facing the same sort of challenges Margaret Thatcher, who really needed to be known as the “ Iron Lady” once faced.

While across the sea of Japan another and here again a more historically confrontative Japanese government has come to power one less willing to accommodate North Korea’s absurdities than its own Japanese political rivals. And even here in the United States we have our own brand spanking new Secretary of Defense, Chuck Hegel, a former Vietnam soldier and longtime senator but himself only weeks into his new position as Secretary of Defense.
So am I nervous about the possibility of an explosion on the Korean peninsula? You bet, the way this observer sees it.. this maybe a very old game, But it is a very dangerous old game being played by too many new players.

I would not take those odds to Vegas.

“Gambling on Insurance” March 2013

Audio for Gambling on Insurance

Dr. Steven A Leibo is the Sage Colleges Professor of International History & Politics

“Gambling on Insurance”

I suppose you one should not admit this on the radio but I am something of an addict. No on not drugs , I suppose being in college in the sixties probably soured me on that stuff. And as for booze, well, I am one of those people who falls asleep after the second beer. It is sort of hard to get addicted under those circumstances.

No, it’s gambling I am really into. Oh not the Las Vegas sort. For me Vegas style gambling is really boring and I don’t find New Jersey’s version any more interesting. No, the gambling I really like is the Connecticut kind.
Yes, Hartford, Connecticut style gambling, you know the city that bills itself as the insurance capital of the world. Now that’s my kind of gambling And I really am addicted. I mean it’s cool, I put down a bet, a wager that my car will get into a wreck, that I will get sick, that all my stuff will get stolen. And the house, the house of Hartford takes the bet. Right, it’s not called a bet, it’s called something else, uh a right a premium. What’s the difference? Spelling!

And the house…. of Hartford is of course is betting that I’ll stay relatively well, that my car will be safe and my stuff not stolen. Sometimes they win, sometimes I win. And I get more piece of mind than most of the folks I have seen staring glassy eyed at the one armed bandits in Vegas.

Oh I know the house of Hartford almost always wins. I know that they have those have those super mathematicians, folks probably even smarter than those math geniuses that can beat the odds at Vegas. The folks that make sure all that gambling always favors the house the house of Hartford.

But now I am starting to get worried because Insurance companies are after all the greatest risk assessors in our economy. And Insurance companies know how to protect themselves. They were after all the ones who pushed for all those building fire and earthquake codes. That is what they do, assess risk and protect their profits, and a good many of those companies, Not all of them, but the best of them are starting to understand the numbers are changing.
That our obsessive burning of fossil fuels is changing the global climate, making it more risky for them to insure our homes, and they are starting to act., doing what the industry calls “Defensive Underwriting” over pricing, withdrawing from particularly vulnerable areas, like Florida where they have fled so dramatically the state government of Florida has become the biggest insurance company.

Indeed while I was writing this, word just came down that federal flood insurance rates would be going up. Yes the insurance industry is starting to get it, starting to understand that climate change is affecting growing seasons, putting the plants that exacerbate for example asthma on steroids. Pushing health care costs up. They know that weather disasters in this country are up four fold in recent years but what really scares me is that insurance is one of the bedrock inventions of modern life. That tool we almost all use to smooth out all those bad things life throws at us.

But insurance only works if life is predictable enough for all those geniuses in the industry to come up with numbers that work for them. That can offer us an affordable premium and still allows them to make a profit when the claims come in. Without that predictability a bedrock of our society, the insurance industry can topple.

Would a bank lend you money on house and assume you will keep paying it for decades unless they could also insure it?
To be blunt insurance is the key enabler of the entire US economy and that industry is built on predictability, While we are moving into an era of climate instability by not pushing faster toward the renewable green energy sources That will allow all of us to withdraw from the biggest addiction of them all climate crashing fossil fuels

President Obama: Lame Duck? March 2013

Audio for President Obama: Lame Duck?

WAMC for March 14
Dr Steven Leibo is the Sage College’s Professor of International History & Politics.

Barack Obama: Lame Duck President?

Frankly, I am concerned about the president. Sure he has been reelected and will never have to run again. But being president, is about making a difference, making the change he called for in his first administration and we heard about so many times during his reelection.

And yes, his supporters have generally been understanding. Ok, there was a lot of grousing done about things left undone in the first term, too many compromises on health care, his unwillingness to even try for a public health insurance option for those of us too young for Medicare.

But his supporters knew they had elected a president, not a dictator, that his powers, however impressive were limited. Not forgetting that his political enemies, set from his first days in office, on destroying not only him but any lasting legacy he might leave.

But while he will obviously serve out the next for years there is a very real chance this president might be about to turn himself into a lame duck president. Indeed If he cannot maintain his popular base, he might well become the fastest lame duck in American history. And that base is awfully sophisticated, not the sort who would allow themselves to be invited to a phony tea party by a bunchy of rich industrialists.

No, they understand the president’s powers are limited. They know that on most issues, especially domestic he cannot act without Congress, but there are a few areas where an American president really has power. Most obviously in foreign policy, as our previous president so often reminded us. A president may not be able to declare war without the consent of Congress but the commander and chief can send the troops in.

No, in the international arena a president can act much more independently and President Obama’s supporters know that. And yes, they know that in his first term he earned great credit pushing green energy. But they also know he failed miserably to use the bully pulpit of the presidency to help Americans understand the urgency of the climate crisis. To help them understand that the physics of global warming do not care that we are making progress. That it is not enough to proudly proclaim all sorts of new technologies of energy efficiency and renewable green energy. That he failed to help Americans understand that the only thing that matters is getting the planetary heat balance back in equilibrium.

No, on that score, as educator in chief, Obama failed miserably, a failing he has obviously acknowledged both in his inaugural address and the state of the union that followed. And now his first real test has arrived, the question not of whether we will gently move toward more green energy but begin the dramatic shift away from the some of the most filthy of the fossil fuels by rejecting the dirtiest of them all the infamous Canadian Tar sands.

And yes indeed his followers are sophisticated, they know the president’s powers are limited. But they know as well, that precisely because those climate crashing tar sands begin in Canada. This president alone can make the decision. And if he does the right thing he will have shown the leadership his presidency promised.

But if at this absolute juncture, he allows that keystone tar sands pipeline to be approved, if he lets his clever but dangerous “all the above” administrative energy polity prevail this time President Obama is most likely going to see his support collapse, left high and dry for his enemies to nibble on over the next four years. Leaving the rest of us trapped as we currently are between the victims of the East Coast’s super storm Sandy and the Midwest’s current historic drought.

Starting the Carbon Conversation Feb. 28, 2013

WAMC
Dr. Steven A Leibo is the Sage College’s Professor of International History & Politics

Audio for Starting the Carbon Conversation

“Starting the Carbon Conversation”

Last week, I found myself, within days in two very different environments. On the 17th I was with something over 40,000 Americans, young and old, people who had traveled from across the country, from California to Vermont, teachers like myself and people who worked the land.

Indeed for a time I walked with Vivian Groves Fulk, a former southern Tobacco farmer and more recently wine grape grower, who’d been forced to give up her vines, because our emerging erratic weather had simply made accomplishing what farmers have done for millennia impossibly difficult.

Somewhat earlier I’d walked with Doug Grandt, a retired engineer, indeed a trained petroleum engineer who formerly worked for Exon Mobile, who spends his retirement traveling the country educating people about the dangers of fossil fuels and the importance of embracing greener, cleaner energy technologies.

Yes, all standing in front of the White House, urging President Obama to build on his remarkable record of accomplishment in nurturing green energy and live up to the promises of his Inaugural address and State of the Union that he would take on the challenge of the Climate Crisis.

Sure, it was a bit cold out there on the Washington mall. But it was not that hard to keep warm. It was after all a huge crowd with lots of energy and very loud voices. While only a few days later my environment could not have been more different, sitting in a seminar room at Harvard University. Yes, a room mostly full of academics, lots of ties and laptops, and quite frankly only one or two, who looked likely to have also been on the mall in front of the White House.

But amazingly they were talking almost about the same thing. In fact both groups had one thing very much in common, a deep and committed sense that we needed to reflect harder about that core element of our lives the question of the sorts of energy that powers us. At Harvard, the question was, should the field of historical studies include a new focus specifically on how energy, its use and development has played out in human history.

While in front of the White House, the altogether more unruly crowd was demanding that we challenge the fossil fuel regime of the past and rethink energy priorities of the future. Yes, rethink whether we want to tie ourselves even more tightly to one of the dirtiest most climate transforming fossil fuels ever dragged from of the ground, the infamous Canadian Tar Sands or embrace with even more enthusiasm the hydrofracking process to pull more natural gas from deep within the earth.

When, the development of either will make more and more droughts like our current one national one or super storms like Sandy more likely in the future.

And while the conversation and participants of the two gatherings, Harvard’s seminar room and the windy and cold White House demonstration could not have been more different they are both indicative of the momentum that is building, a momentum that absolutely demands that humanity reflect more seriously on our relationship to energy, in a way we have not really done since the fossil fuel revolution of two centuries ago.

That the modern era’s dependence on the energy of the dead, the carbon revolution that fueled the modern era’s fossil fuel civilization, the advantages and the challenges that enormous power fossil fuels, from coal and oil to natural gas have given us, billions of us each with more power than an ancient Egyptian pharaoh could have employed. And yet which has also seen our lungs destroyed by horrific air pollution, weakened by everything from asthma to pulmonary disease, our cities devastated by more and more powerful storms, our farms dried up by the moisture sucking nature of warmer air and our crops withering.

Literally a cornucopia of blessings and penalties that absolutely demand the beginnings of a real Carbon Conversation that Harvard and last week’s White House crowd, each in their own different ways are forcing us to take on.

A Baby Boomer’s Last March?

Audio for “A Baby Boomer’s Last March?
WAMC Feb. 14, 2013
Dr. Steven A Leibo is a Professor of International History & Politics at the Sage Colleges

I have been thinking a lot about my ankle lately. You see it does not work very well. It’s often pretty painful to even walk. I suppose it’s not really the ankle’s fault. It’s just been around a long time, well over sixty years. And of course it’s gotten a lot of use, especially in the nineteen sixties when my generation, you’ve probably heard of us, early on known as the baby boomers, then for a time the Vietnam generation and then more recently back again as the boomers.

In any case, it’s true we were born just after World War II. And we certainly did spend a lot of time marching against the Vietnam War. Boy we were young back than and not just young but really naïve. We actually thought Richard Nixon, the president who helped create the Environmental Protection Agency, Opened relations with Red China and almost struck a deal with Ted Kennedy on national health care, was a conservative!.. can you believe it?

And of course my generation really believed a committed people could actually change America. We thought if we pushed hard enough we might be able to empower women to have more control over their lives. Even push past the world of Jim Crow we were born into— to really empower African Americans to take their rightful place in American life. Pretty heady stuff, but of course the young can be awfully ambitious.

These days, I am not nearly as ambitious, well maybe I am looking forward to being able to qualify for full social security benefits rather than the more limited ones I can already claim. No it’s true, my ambitions are less transformative, dare I say it, I am becoming more conservative every day. I suppose that is pretty common,

No, these days, just conserving the planetary climate patterns we all grew up within seems quite enough. I suppose, like a lot of people I just want to protect what I have got and willing if necessary to stand up to all those radicals in the fossil fuel industry who want to pull down society.

No, sometimes it feels pretty good to be a conservative. Which brings me back to my ankle, because this Sunday this aging baby boomer, this member of the Vietnam generation is going back into the streets, back into the streets because at this moment, from all across the nation people are streaming toward DC to stand at the citadel of our nation’s capital and demand that we begin the most important and most conservative effort of our lives to force a national conversation on the price we pay for our prolific burning of fossil fuels.

Yes, thousands of people flowing toward DC to demand that those who want to make our emerging climatic instability even worse by investing heavily into even dirtier fossil fuels, a suicidal dive into the tar sand oils, the infamous Keystone Pipeline have got to be stopped– pushed aside in a wave of green energy development. And ankle or not, even if I have to stand in the middle of the crowd and let them march around me this baby boomer will be there because future generations won’t know the baby boomer generation from a cumquat. Will know Vietnam only as a country ravaged by ever more powerful storms not war.

No sadly future generations are more likely to remember us as

“the generation that knew”

That knew that fossil fuel burning was destroying our planetary heat balance in a way that our parents could not have known. And whose children were largely too young, still too lacking in influence yet to steer our fossil fuel Titanic like ship of state fast enough away from the danger. Yes, we are really the generation that knew, the generation that still largely runs the world and yet did not do enough to conserve climate stability.

So bad ankle or not, thus Sunday, February 17th it’s back to the streets for this baby boomer and his bad ankle.
It’s a way to make amends

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